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Election 2024: Prof. Sarpong defends poll forecasting Bawumia’s triumph.

Written by on June 8, 2024

Professor Smart Sarpong has defended his poll, which projects Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia as the favored presidential candidate with 38.9 percent in the upcoming 2024 general elections.

The Director of Research and Innovation at Kumasi Technical University stated in his survey that the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) flagbearer leads John Dramani Mahama and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, Western, and Western North regions.

The survey has faced criticism, especially from members of the NDC, who argue that Prof. Sarpong’s known affinity for the NPP and Dr. Bawumia casts doubt on the survey’s validity.

Speaking in an interview with Selorm Adonoo on The Big Issue on ChannelOne TV, Prof. Sarpong defended his credibility and track record in conducting fair polls, citing his accurate predictions in previous elections, including the 2020 general elections.

“In the report that I have shared, I have included links to about two of my previous polls. The first one is the election 2020 and the other is the regional election in the Ashanti Region. In 2020, I presented my elections research findings, and in there, the NPP was supposed to have a first-round victory with 51.4%, and that was a major one,” he stated.

“One notable aspect of the findings I’ve presented is my commitment to engaging with the press, providing ample time for them to seek clarifications, as they are instrumental in determining the narrative.

“On four significant occasions, I’ve convened press briefings to discuss various research findings on matters of national importance. While some may question the track record, it’s worth noting that there are highly capable minds within universities capable of contributing to election research, although our primary focus often lies in teaching and research activities. However, whenever feasible, I endeavor to engage in such endeavors, always welcoming scrutiny and clarification-seeking from the press.”

Prof. Sarpong emphasized that his survey adhered to the necessary sampling methods to ensure its statistical accuracy and credibility.

“There are stringent requirements for sample selection, and in our case, we aimed for a minimum sample size of 15,500. This figure is derived from the population of registered voters in Ghana, which stood at about 17 million in 2020, with approximately 13.4 million turning out to vote. Hence, any credible sampling effort must encompass at least 15,500 individuals, which we duly employed in our survey.”

“Even in selecting the sample, it’s crucial to ensure adequate representation of sub-samples, a fundamental aspect of sampling. While it’s recognized that demonstrating representation doesn’t necessarily require sampling from all 275 constituencies, statistical principles such as the law of statistical regularity and the central limit theorem indicate that including more sub-samples enhances the accuracy of the study.

“Studies that encompass all characteristics of the population tend to be more statistically stable and reliable than those that do not.”

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